Monthly Archives: November 2017

The budget, the OBR, and futurology

The OBR has followed the Bank of England and downgraded its medium/long-term forecast of the growth in the productive potential of the economy.  It now thinks only 1.6% is likely.  This comes after 10 years of zero productivity growth has … Continue reading

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Brexit/Ireland conundrum

In a short table.  Caveat:  Declan Gaffney tells me Ireland are not ok with turning a blind eye to smuggling people and things, as indicated below. The argument for the Y is that it allows Ireland a de facto frictionless … Continue reading

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Another lump of the lump of labour fallacy

Owen Jones writes in the Guardian that we should consider mandating a compulsory maximum 4 day week.  One of the hopes is that this would ‘slash unemployment and underemployment’. This is a common example of what economists call the ‘lump … Continue reading

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BoE day. Justifying a hike is an uphill struggle

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates for the first time today since 2007. So here is a quick post-mortem on the November 2017 Inflation Report. I would have voted against a rate rise today, for a … Continue reading

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