Monthly Archives: June 2014

[nerdy] Reply to Hendry and Mizon: we have DSGE models with time-varying parameters and variances

Hendry and Mizon summarised a recent paper of theirs on VoxEU explaining that DSGE models break down in crises because these events involve shifts in the distribution of observeables that fixed-parameter, fixed-variance DSGE models can’t articulate.  They tell the story … Continue reading

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Tim Harford wants forecasters to take wagers: most of them already bet their livelihoods

In a nice post, Tim Harford explains why it would be desirable for economic pundits or forecasters to place bets based on their punditry and forecasting, citing a recent £1000 wager between Jonathan Portes and Andrew Lilico.  It would put … Continue reading

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Governor: no more cheap yield curve talking, let’s have an MPC interest rate forecast please

Yesterday [24 June] Mark Carney’s doveish remarks at Treasury Committee – particularly the emphasis on weak nominal wage growth – caused the yield curve and Sterling to fall.  This was but 12 days since his Mansion House speech, where, surely … Continue reading

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Andrew Haldane’s spin

Andrew Haldane’s first speech as a monetary policymaker is built around a cricket metaphor.  It seemed de rigeur that any response followed suit.  But all I could manage was this pretty silly and mostly inappropriate pun in the title – … Continue reading

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Blogging is still mostly unpaid hot air

Paul Krugman blogs on an old theme, how the econoblogosphere has displaced journals and formal academic research as the focal point for debate.   Old formal credentials like being a Professor at a reputable university, or holding a top job at … Continue reading

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Mark Carney’s eyebrows

Mark Carney used his Mansion House speech to talk up the yield curve and the Sterling exchange rate, warning us that interest rates might rise sooner than markets think. On the face of it, this seems like a pretty regular … Continue reading

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Escaping the zero lower bound: electronic money, or higher inflation?

Ken Rogoff wrote recently extolling the virtues of abolishing cash in favour of electronic money in order to escape the zero lower bound, which he prefers to the alternative of raising the inflation target.  Targeting higher inflation would ‘baffle’ the … Continue reading

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