Monthly Archives: January 2016

So the Fed did not predict the panic in global stock markets. So what?  Who could have?  It wasn’t a mistake not to have. Krugman doesn’t scold them for this, but he does scold them for not postponing a hike … Continue reading →

This paper explains John Taylor’s view that if only central banks committed to monetary policy rules, international monetary disorder, and indeed large-scale capital flows, would be eradicated. It’s an extension of his earlier argument that the US’ financial crisis and … Continue reading →

I was interested to read Simon Wren Lewis‘ post on the dysfunction in the Eurozone caused by German improved ‘competitiveness’. Is this right?  Well, one thing I learned from those in my team at the Bank of England who were … Continue reading →

Actually, I wonder about this mind changing business…. Two correspondents, Julian Echave, and another, privately, questioned the crudeness of this concept. One way of responding to what they said is to note that, for example, from a Bayesian perspective, the … Continue reading →

It’s fashionable now to get out there what you’ve changed your mind on.  The calculation being, perhaps, that unless you do, you will get nowhere arguing hard for your other, unalterable priors. In that spirit, here are a few thing … Continue reading →

Today’s UK labour market data show nominal wage growth falling back – to about 2% annual growth, from a local peak last year of 3% – at the same time as the employment rate increases.  This is another important interregnum … Continue reading →

This letter sent to Danny today, should contain no surprises.  But it gathers together the various views I’ve ranted about on the framework / mandate for monetary policy in the UK. At some point I will update with a version … Continue reading →

A quick response to this guest post by Gerard Macdonell on Noah Smith’s blog. There are two main thrusts to the post. One is that the stated claims for the efficacy of QE are false.  I’m not a fan of … Continue reading →

The economic calendar is packed with forecast releases, and each time a new one comes out, social media bursts forth with comments denigrating forecasts. Common themes are:  forecasting and economic modelling are different activities;  forecasting is trash-talk, modelling or analysing … Continue reading →

Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong, and Larry Summers have been having a debate about just why they think the Fed might have been premature in raising interest rates.  The conversation surfaced a disagreement between Krugman and Summers over the legitimacy of … Continue reading →