Monthly Archives: April 2016

Prospect piece: Janan Ganesh, law, morality and fairness

Here is a piece out on the Prospect website today, responding to Janan Ganesh’s FT column last week.

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HMT, the ‘shock’ of Brexit, and the mix of policy at the zero bound

What we understand to have been so far left out of the HMT Brexit report is the impact of the potential ‘shock’ that a Brexit report would consider. I sketched suich a shock in an earlier post when I responded … Continue reading

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Osborne’s Brexit cost ‘forecast’ and regular budget forecast uncertainty

‘Leavers’ were out in force trying to denounce the Treasury’s report on the costs of Brexit, arguing that if Osborne could not forecast the deficit accurately a few years ahead, why should anyone take seriously his forecast of the cost … Continue reading

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I doubt that Osborne’s worry that mortgage rates will rise after Brexit is right

It’s being reported that George Osborne warns that Brexit will prompt a rise in mortgage rates.  I doubt this. There are two plausible things to worry about.  First, the drop in confidence and demand that would follow from news that … Continue reading

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Would the UK Treasury have headed off the financial crisis if the BoE had not been independent?

Probably not, it seems. Nick Macpherson was interviewed by the FT, and, amongst other things, pointed out that the financial stability team there was ‘quite small’ before the financial crisis hit, using the number 20.  Alex White from the Economist … Continue reading

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Everyone has their own ‘monetarism’

This follows reading Paul Krugman’s recent post.  I wasn’t there.  Too young, and never in America.  But, nevertheless, I’ll sketch my own version of what ‘monetarism’ means to me.  The belief that monetary policy mistakes were behind the business cycle … Continue reading

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Prospect Panel on international tax reform

ICYMI a paragraph by me on international tax reform in an expert panel published by Prospect Magazine, also including other people who actually know about this stuff.

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