Author Archives: Tony Yates

2% wasn’t an ‘arbitrary number’ Neel

FOMC member Neel Kashkari has been doing battle with the crypto gold bugs on Twitter.  In the cut and thrust of this debate, he let fly that the 2% target the Fed had set itself was an ‘arbitrary number’. I … Continue reading

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UK’s MPC vote. Does going from 7-2 to 6-3 mean a hike is coming sooner than we thought?

No. First, recall that the inveterate hawk McCafferty is about to depart the Committee, to be replaced by Jonathan Haskell.  It’s not possible to parse his views at this stage, but McCafferty’s were at the very hawkish end of the … Continue reading

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Social care funding, inheritance tax and hypothecation

Social care funding is as pressing now as when the issue blew up Theresa May’s 2017 attempt to decimate the Labour Party and assert control over the Brexit process.  A consensus of sorts seemed to emerge from that discussion that … Continue reading

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Interest rate forecasts, again

I hope someone can correct me here, but I dimly remember a Stanley Fischer chapter in the old Handbook of Monetary Economics, on central bank independence, that carried an entertaining footnote.  In it, Fischer reports that he showed a draft … Continue reading

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MPC’s discussions on publishing forward interest rates

I gleaned from the Guardian’s liveblog of the Treasury Committee hearing this morning that Carney disclosed that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee had discussions on whether to publish interest rate forecasts. A majority were not in favour, so … Continue reading

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Democracy’s vortex

I had a go at rewriting old blogs about the perceived-grievance-wrong-headed-sop-vortex that we might be headed into. …. According to Idealised Democracy 101, the way things are supposed to proceed is this: when something goes wrong in the economy, or … Continue reading

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Eurozone monetary and fiscal policy

Simon Wren Lewis writes despairingly about the state of Eurozone fiscal policy;  Northern core countries like Germany, France and the Netherlands pursuing zero deficits or surpluses, at a time when ECB interest rates are at the effective lower bound, and … Continue reading

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