Author Archives: Tony Yates

Re-specifying the inflation target for low real interest rates

The Fed’s John Williams has commented that the Fed should revisit the inflation target to provide for future episodes in which very low interest rates are needed. This is welcome.  Blanchard, Krugman, and many others have made the same argument. … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Carney, financial sector ethics, and Hogg

Mark Carney gave opening remarks on a panel on ‘law, ethics and culture in banking’.  I thought they were unfortunate. They come shortly after the resignation of Charlotte Hogg, newly appointed Deputy Governor at the BoE.  She had forgotten to … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Brexit and Scottish Independence: It May have been time for some bad game theory

The SNP have called for a second referendum on Scottish independence, and many feel this is the direct result of the Prime Minister steering us towards a ‘hard Brexit’:  exit from the single market and the customs union. This seems … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

If Brexit means Brexit, we are not doing what we need on macro policy to make the best of it

Budget day.    Article 50 is about to be invoked.  From here until actual EU exit, there is a sizeable risk of a sharp reduction in growth, or even a recession, as information emerges about the likely terms of trade with … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Monetary policy mistakes, and central banks’ reluctance to discuss them

Watching the Bank of England Inflation Report Press Conference webcast this week, the subject of whether a monetary policy mistake was made in the aftermath of the Brexit vote in June loomed, with questions from Ben Chu and others.  This … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Perceived grievance/wrong-headed sop vortex, updated

Last year, I wrote this post.  Worrying about a vortex of ever lower prosperity and policy rationality.  It was in the aftermath of the EU referendum in the UK, which can be taken to be a vote against immigration and … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Political economy of pre and post crisis Eurozone inflation

Before the financial crisis, a standard assumption [I subscribed to] was that the Southern peripheral countries were on a path converging their income per capita to Northern levels, and as such, through Balassa-Samuelson effects, experiencing faster inflation.  The Balassa-Samuelson effect … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment