Search Results for: forward guidance

Mark Carney used his Mansion House speech to talk up the yield curve and the Sterling exchange rate, warning us that interest rates might rise sooner than markets think. On the face of it, this seems like a pretty regular … Continue reading →

Noah Smith and Ryan Avent got his debate going again, a conversation whose last incarnation was an exchange between Steve Williamson and Paul Krugman, essentially, sparked by Steve asserting that inflation was too low because Fed rates were too low.  … Continue reading →

The Fed recently made its workhorse model FRB-US downloadable, with a dataset, code, everything you need to take a close look at what Governors say and what the staff have been doing for them.  The Bank of England should do … Continue reading →

Draghi recently commented that ‘we are not seeing deflation’.  He elaborated.  They weren’t ‘seeing’ people postpone purchases until prices fell.  The ECB were ready to act [presumably when they did ‘see it’].  But there was no need to act further … Continue reading →

Yesterday [13 Feb 2014] was a big moment in the  life of the UK constitution.  As part of an all party media campaign to communicate that no possible future UK government would agree to a currency union with a putative … Continue reading →

I have, occasionally, pointed out things that the Bank has done well in this blog.  However, it’s fair to say that most of what I have done is to detail things I think could be done differently.  But in case … Continue reading →

Folks.  I found myself in a tricky position when I arrived.  The bosses in Whitehall were really taken with this thing about keeping interest rates lower for longer, and, frankly, since there was no way they could loosen fiscal policy, … Continue reading →

On Tuesday this week, the FOMC decided not to begin to reduce the scale of its monthly asset purchases, as Bernanke had previously signalled it might.  This highlighted for me the starkly different QE policies that the Fed has compared … Continue reading →

Notice two arguments in George Osborne’s ‘mission accomplished’ speech. 1.  After several years of declining or stagnant output, we at last have evidence of  moderate growth in official data and other positive, survey indicators.  This demonstrates that those that argued … Continue reading →

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, spoke yesterday to try to convince markets that interest rates will stay lower for longer than they expect.  Assuming that was the intention, it wasn’t very succesful. Why don’t markets share the … Continue reading →