Category Archives: Uncategorized

Gerard Macdonnell on QE

A quick response to this guest post by Gerard Macdonell on Noah Smith’s blog. There are two main thrusts to the post. One is that the stated claims for the efficacy of QE are false.  I’m not a fan of … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

On models and forecasts, and how one implies the other.

The economic calendar is packed with forecast releases, and each time a new one comes out, social media bursts forth with comments denigrating forecasts. Common themes are:  forecasting and economic modelling are different activities;  forecasting is trash-talk, modelling or analysing … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

The Krugtron, confidence and models

Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong, and Larry Summers have been having a debate about just why they think the Fed might have been premature in raising interest rates.  The conversation surfaced a disagreement between Krugman and Summers over the legitimacy of … Continue reading

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Kocherlakota and the credibility calculus of raising the inflation target

Krugman, Blanchard and others have suggested raising the inflation target as a way to prevent – or at least reduce the severity of – future episodes where the monetary policy interest rate is trapped at zero. This is a position … Continue reading

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Carney’s conduct at the BoE

So during the first of the two short slots I did last night on Bloomberg with Joe Weisenthal, it was put to me, via an audio of Paul Donovan at UBS, that Mark Carney was adopting too dictatorial a style. … Continue reading

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Carney: will he stay or will he go?

When he was recruited to the BoE Governor’s job in 2013, Mark Carney let it be known that he would not serve more than 5 years of the 8 year term.  Lately, he has made it clear that he is … Continue reading

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More on the Germans.

Simon Wren Lewis responds to my post about [his post on] the extent to which we can pin the ultimate blame for the Eurozone crisis on bad German economics. He sympathises somewhat with the notion that prior to the Euro, … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments