Category Archives: Uncategorized

The polls are tightening, and it’s estimated now that there is a 30 % chance of the UK voting to leave the EU.  The Bank of England somehow has to produce an Inflation Report and a policy decision that reflects … Continue reading →

Here is a piece out on the Prospect website today, responding to Janan Ganesh’s FT column last week.

What we understand to have been so far left out of the HMT Brexit report is the impact of the potential ‘shock’ that a Brexit report would consider. I sketched suich a shock in an earlier post when I responded … Continue reading →

‘Leavers’ were out in force trying to denounce the Treasury’s report on the costs of Brexit, arguing that if Osborne could not forecast the deficit accurately a few years ahead, why should anyone take seriously his forecast of the cost … Continue reading →

It’s being reported that George Osborne warns that Brexit will prompt a rise in mortgage rates.  I doubt this. There are two plausible things to worry about.  First, the drop in confidence and demand that would follow from news that … Continue reading →

Probably not, it seems. Nick Macpherson was interviewed by the FT, and, amongst other things, pointed out that the financial stability team there was ‘quite small’ before the financial crisis hit, using the number 20.  Alex White from the Economist … Continue reading →

This follows reading Paul Krugman’s recent post.  I wasn’t there.  Too young, and never in America.  But, nevertheless, I’ll sketch my own version of what ‘monetarism’ means to me.  The belief that monetary policy mistakes were behind the business cycle … Continue reading →